The battle for the final qualification spot in Group D of the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) is set for a thrilling conclusion. With Nigeria already securing their place in Morocco, Rwanda, Benin, and Libya are vying for the remaining ticket in the group. Here’s an in-depth look at what each team must do to join the Super Eagles in Africa’s premier football tournament.
Current Group D Standings
| Position | Team | Matches Played | Points | Goal Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nigeria | 5 | 11 | +5 |
| 2 | Benin | 5 | 7 | +2 |
| 3 | Rwanda | 5 | 5 | -2 |
| 4 | Libya | 5 | 4 | -5 |
What Benin Need to Qualify
Benin is currently in second place, giving them the advantage heading into the final matchday. The Cheetahs have multiple pathways to qualification:
- Win or Draw Against Libya
A win or a draw in Tripoli will secure Benin’s place at AFCON 2025, regardless of the result between Nigeria and Rwanda. - Narrow Loss
If Benin lose by one goal, they can still qualify based on goal difference. However, they must ensure Libya does not score more than two goals. For example, a 2-1 defeat would still see Benin qualify due to a better head-to-head record. - Avoid a Heavy Defeat
A loss by two or more goals would likely see Benin eliminated, as Libya would overtake them on goal difference.
Key Players:
Benin will look to forward Steve Mounié and midfielder Jodel Dossou to provide the firepower needed to secure their first AFCON appearance since 2019, where they reached the quarterfinals.
What Rwanda Need to Qualify
Rwanda’s path to qualification is clear but difficult. The Amavubi must win their match against Nigeria in Uyo and hope for favorable results in Tripoli:
- Win and Benin Lose
If Rwanda defeats Nigeria and Libya beats Benin, Rwanda will qualify outright. - Win and Benin Draws
Even with a victory over Nigeria, Rwanda will miss out if Benin earns a point against Libya. In this scenario, Benin would advance due to a superior head-to-head record.
Challenges:
Facing Nigeria on their home turf is a daunting task, but with the Super Eagles already qualified, Rwanda may hope for a weakened lineup. Coach Torsten Spittler will need his team to summon the same resilience that saw them win away against Lesotho in their 2026 World Cup qualifier.
Key Players:
Veteran striker Meddie Kagere and creative midfielder Olivier Niyonzima will be crucial for Rwanda, as they aim to secure their second-ever AFCON appearance since debuting in 2004.
What Libya Need to Qualify
Libya’s qualification scenario is the most challenging, requiring them to not only win but also depend on other results:
- Win by Two or More Goals
Libya must defeat Benin by at least two goals to overtake them on goal difference. This would also ensure that Rwanda cannot surpass them, even if they win against Nigeria. - Win Narrowly and Rely on Nigeria
A narrow victory for Libya (e.g., 1-0) would leave their fate dependent on Nigeria defeating or drawing against Rwanda.
Challenges:
Libya’s campaign has been hampered by inconsistency and the CAF sanctions that stripped them of points and goals after their poor treatment of the Nigerian team. Despite this, their 1-0 win against Rwanda earlier in the qualifiers has kept their hopes alive.
Key Players:
Striker Muaid Ellafi and midfielder Anis Saltou will need to deliver for Libya as they seek to replicate their success from 1982, when they reached the AFCON final on home soil.
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Key Matches to Watch
Nigeria vs. Rwanda (Godswill Akpabio Stadium, Uyo)
- Kickoff: Monday, November 20, 2024
- Significance: Rwanda must win to keep their qualification hopes alive. Nigeria, already qualified, will aim to end their campaign unbeaten.
Libya vs. Benin (Tripoli Stadium, Tripoli)
- Kickoff: Monday, November 20, 2024
- Significance: A must-win game for both teams, with Benin needing at least a draw to secure qualification and Libya requiring a victory by two or more goals.
Historical Context
- Benin: The Cheetahs have made four AFCON appearances, with their best result being a quarterfinal finish in 2019.
- Rwanda: The Amavubi have qualified just once, in 2004, where they finished ninth.
- Libya: The Mediterranean Knights have qualified three times, reaching the final in 1982 as hosts.
Final Thoughts: High Stakes on Matchday Six
The final day of Group D action promises to deliver high drama, with three teams fighting for a single ticket to Morocco. Benin holds the advantage but cannot afford any missteps in Tripoli. Rwanda faces an uphill battle in Uyo, while Libya must overcome significant odds to secure an improbable qualification.
For fans, the last round of matches embodies the passion and unpredictability of African football. The road to AFCON 2025 will be paved with moments of brilliance, resilience, and, inevitably, heartbreak.
