The Champions League round of 16 serves up a thrilling Madrid derby as Real Madrid welcome city rivals Atletico Madrid to the Santiago Bernabeu. Both teams are looking to gain an upper hand in the first leg of this high-stakes European battle, but who will take the advantage?
Real Madrid’s Champions League Mindset
Real Madrid have a reputation for stepping up on big European nights. Despite their inconsistency in La Liga, they dispatched Manchester City in the play-off round, proving they remain a force in this competition.
Carlo Ancelotti’s side, however, come into this clash with mixed domestic form, having won just one of their last five league matches. A 2-1 defeat to Real Betis at the weekend highlighted some of their current vulnerabilities.
The absence of Jude Bellingham due to suspension is a significant blow. His ability to make late runs into the box and score crucial goals has been a game-changer for Madrid this season. Brahim Diaz is expected to take his place, while Vinicius Jr. and Kylian Mbappe will be tasked with leading the attack.
Defensively, Madrid will be without key players like Dani Carvajal and David Alaba. Federico Valverde is expected to shift into the right-back role, while Raul Asencio partners Antonio Rudiger at center-back. The defensive reshuffle could open opportunities for Atletico’s counter-attacking style.
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Atletico Madrid’s Tactical Edge
Atletico Madrid head into the first leg with renewed confidence after a crucial 1-0 win over Athletic Club. Diego Simeone’s men have remained defensively compact while being lethal on the break. Their last Champions League outing saw them qualify directly for the last 16, avoiding the play-off route Madrid had to navigate.
Julian Alvarez, who scored against Madrid in La Liga last month, is expected to start ahead of Alexander Sorloth. The Argentine forward has been in fine form, linking well with Antoine Griezmann in attack. Meanwhile, the midfield battle will be crucial, with Atletico deploying a hard-working unit consisting of Rodrigo De Paul, Pablo Barrios, and Conor Gallagher.
Defensively, the visitors will rely on Jose Gimenez and Robin Le Normand to handle the attacking threat posed by Vinicius Jr. and Mbappe. With Cesar Azpilicueta and Koke ruled out, Simeone will have to ensure his squad remains disciplined and compact throughout the 90 minutes.
Head-to-Head: A Battle of Equals
The Madrid derby has always been closely contested, and recent encounters further emphasize this point. In their last five meetings, each team has won once, with three matches ending in draws. Their most recent La Liga encounter saw Real Madrid rally to secure a 1-1 draw after falling behind early.
Recent Head-to-Head Results
- Real Madrid 1-1 Atletico Madrid (8 February 2025, La Liga)
- Real Madrid 1-1 Atletico Madrid (15 January 2025, Spanish Super Cup)
- Atletico Madrid 3-1 Real Madrid (24 September 2024, La Liga)
- Real Madrid 1-1 Atletico Madrid (6 May 2024, La Liga)
- Atletico Madrid 0-2 Real Madrid (26 January 2024, Copa del Rey)
Predicted Lineups: Injury Woes for Both Sides
Real Madrid Predicted Lineup (4-4-2)
Courtois; Valverde, Rudiger, Asencio, Mendy; Brahim, Tchouameni, Camavinga, Rodrygo; Vinicius, Mbappe.
Atletico Madrid Predicted Lineup (4-4-2)
Oblak; Llorente, Gimenez, Le Normand, Galan; Simeone, De Paul, Barrios, Gallagher; Alvarez, Griezmann.
With key players missing, both managers will need to make tactical adjustments. The battle in midfield could determine the tempo of the game, with Tchouameni and Camavinga facing off against Atletico’s hard-working trio.
Score Prediction: Who Has the Upper Hand?
Real Madrid’s ability to step up in the Champions League is well-documented, but Atletico’s tactical discipline and defensive solidity make them dangerous opponents. The hosts will dominate possession, while the visitors will look to strike on the counter.
Madrid’s home advantage and attacking firepower, even without Bellingham, should give them a slight edge. However, Atletico’s well-structured defensive approach will ensure this remains a close contest.
Prediction: Real Madrid 2-3 Atletico Madrid
Where to Watch Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid
Football fans can catch the action live through these channels:
- UK: discovery+, TNT Sports 1
- US: Paramount+, TUDN, Univision NOW
- Canada: DAZN Canada
Despite their struggles in La Liga, Real Madrid remain formidable in the Champions League. Atletico Madrid, on the other hand, will look to capitalize on any weaknesses. This Madrid derby promises intensity, drama, and high stakes.
Will Real Madrid secure an advantage, or can Atletico stun their city rivals on the European stage? Fans are in for a classic.
