The 2024-25 UEFA Champions League season has brought significant changes to its format, and teams are now faced with a new challenge: navigating through a single league system of 36 teams.
Unlike previous seasons, where clubs were divided into eight groups of four, the new Swiss-style league format means every club plays eight matches against different opponents, four at home and four away.
The top eight teams will automatically qualify for the knockout rounds, while teams finishing 9th to 24th will enter a two-legged play-off to join them.
For the bottom 12 teams, elimination will come with no access to the Europa League. With so much at stake, how many points will clubs need to secure their passage to the next round?
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The Top Eight: Securing Automatic Knockout Qualification
The target for every club is clear: finish in the top eight of the 36-team league and qualify directly for the Champions League knockout rounds. But just how many points are necessary to ensure a spot in the last 16?
According to Opta’s supercomputer, 16 points from a possible 24—equivalent to five wins and one draw from eight matches—will almost certainly be enough to guarantee a place in the top eight. This would provide teams with the luxury of skipping the play-off round and moving straight into the Champions League knockout stages.
However, it’s also possible to qualify with slightly fewer points. Opta’s simulations suggest that 15 points—achieved through five wins—could be enough to sneak into the top eight. Based on 50,000 simulations, teams finishing with 15 points made the top eight 73 percent of the time, showing that while it’s not guaranteed, it’s a strong position to be in.
On the other hand, 14 points—achieved through four wins and two draws—may leave teams just short of the top eight. In most scenarios, 14 points would likely result in a play-off position rather than automatic qualification for the last 16.
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Qualifying for the Play-offs: The Minimum Points Required
For teams unable to break into the top eight, the next goal will be to finish in the top 24 to ensure at least a place in the two-legged play-offs. These play-offs will determine which additional eight teams will join the top eight in the knockout rounds.
Based on Opta’s calculations, 10 points—equivalent to three wins and a draw from eight games—should be enough to guarantee a play-off spot. This number of points provides a near-certain chance of progressing to the next stage, as the simulations show that teams with 10 points almost always finish in the top 24.
Even with nine points—equivalent to three wins from eight games—teams have a 69 percent chance of securing a play-off spot. While not as secure as 10 points, nine points still offer a decent opportunity to continue in the competition.
However, teams finishing with eight points—achieved through two wins and two draws—run a significant risk of elimination. Opta’s simulations suggest that only 16 percent of teams with eight points made it to the top 24, meaning that clubs will likely need at least three wins to advance.
The Pressure Is On: What Teams Must Do to Survive
With this new Champions League format, every game becomes crucial, and the pressure to secure wins is higher than ever before. Teams can no longer rely on traditional group-stage strategies, where advancing with just a few wins was sometimes possible. Now, clubs must target at least three wins from their eight matches to give themselves the best chance of avoiding an early exit.
For the biggest clubs, the focus will be on reaching five wins to secure a place in the top eight and avoid the play-off round entirely. Given the unpredictability of two-legged ties, direct qualification to the last 16 is a significant advantage, and teams will want to secure that position as soon as possible.
On the flip side, clubs aiming to reach the play-offs will know that they cannot afford many slip-ups. With just two wins and two draws, teams could find themselves eliminated, as that points total rarely guarantees progression. Instead, they will be pushing for at least three wins and a draw to improve their chances of staying in the competition.
Why the New Format Changes the Dynamics
The new 36-team Champions League format has drastically changed the dynamics of the Champions League. Previously, teams had a clearer path to the last 16, but now, the increased number of matches and opponents adds unpredictability. Teams no longer face familiar group-stage foes; instead, they must contend with a variety of different styles, which adds to the excitement and tension of the competition.
Additionally, this format rewards consistency. A few early wins can set teams on the path to the knockout rounds, while slip-ups could leave even big clubs scrambling to qualify. As the competition progresses, fans will undoubtedly witness some surprising results and dramatic shifts in the standings.
