Italy and France will lock horns on Sunday at the iconic San Siro in Milan as the 2024/25 UEFA Nations League group phase comes to an electrifying close.
While both teams have already secured their places in next March’s quarterfinals, this showdown promises excitement, skill, and a chance for either side to claim bragging rights.
Italy enters this match riding high on a wave of confidence. Under the guidance of Luciano Spalletti, the Azzurri have delivered a stellar Nations League campaign, highlighted by their 3-1 triumph over France in September.
That victory set the tone for a group phase where Italy has consistently impressed, including a controlled 1-0 win over Belgium on Thursday, courtesy of Sandro Tonali’s strike.
Spalletti has transformed this Italy side into a cohesive unit, blending tactical flexibility with individual brilliance. The team’s ability to switch between a back three and a back four has kept opponents guessing, and their midfield, anchored by talents like Nicolo Barella and Manuel Locatelli, has dominated games with control and creativity.
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France’s Stumble in Israel
While France has also secured their quarterfinal spot, their recent performance against Israel left much to be desired. Les Bleus dominated possession but failed to break down a resilient Israeli defense, settling for a frustrating 0-0 draw.
The absence of Kylian Mbappe, left out of the squad for “the best,” according to Didier Deschamps, has raised questions about France’s attacking depth despite their abundance of talent.
Sunday’s clash offers France an opportunity to regain momentum and avenge their September defeat to Italy. Players like Marcus Thuram, Kingsley Coman, and Christopher Nkunku will need to step up to fill the creative void and penetrate a disciplined Italian defense.
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Team News and Predicted Lineups
Italy:
Luciano Spalletti is expected to rotate his squad, giving opportunities to players like Moise Kean, who has been in red-hot form, and Federico Gatti in defense. Injuries to Gianluca Scamacca, Giorgio Scalvini, and Samuele Ricci mean others will need to step up. The Azzurri’s versatility in formation—shifting between a 3-5-1-1 and a 4-3-3—remains one of their biggest strengths.
Predicted Italy XI (3-5-1-1):
Vicario; Di Lorenzo, Gatti, Buongiorno; Cambiaso, Barella, Locatelli, Tonali, Udogie; Raspadori; Kean.
France:
Without Mbappe, Deschamps may look to inject fresh energy into his side. William Saliba is likely to bolster the defense, while Marcus Thuram and Adrien Rabiot are expected to feature prominently. Goalkeeper Lucas Chevalier could earn his first cap, offering a glimpse into the future for Les Bleus.
Predicted France XI (4-2-3-1):
Chevalier; Pavard, Saliba, Upamecano, Hernandez; Guendouzi, Rabiot; Dembele, Nkunku, Coman; Thuram.
Key Battles to Watch
- Italy’s Midfield vs France’s Press:
The combination of Barella, Tonali, and Locatelli will face a stern test against France’s pressing midfield, led by Rabiot and Guendouzi. Italy’s ability to maintain control in the center of the park could dictate the game’s tempo. - Kean vs Saliba and Upamecano:
Moise Kean’s pace and power will be crucial in breaking through France’s defensive pairing of Saliba and Upamecano. His recent form suggests he’s up for the challenge. - Dembele and Coman vs Italy’s Defense:
France’s wide men, Dembele and Coman, possess the skill and speed to trouble Italy’s full-backs. Their ability to deliver quality balls into the box will be vital to France’s attacking success.
Tactical Flexibility: Italy’s Edge
One of the defining features of Spalletti’s Italy has been their adaptability. Whether deploying a three-man defense or a more traditional back four, the Azzurri have shown they can adjust to their opponents while maintaining their own style. This tactical flexibility was evident in their win over Belgium and will likely play a significant role against France.
In contrast, France’s rigid structure and recent reliance on individual brilliance have left them vulnerable. Without Mbappe, Deschamps will need to find new ways to unlock Italy’s defense, and his tactical choices will be under the spotlight.
What’s at Stake?
While this match won’t change the standings, the psychological edge of beating a top rival cannot be underestimated. For Italy, another win over France would solidify their status as serious contenders for the Nations League title. For France, a victory would restore confidence and lay the groundwork for a strong knockout stage performance.
Prediction: Italy’s Home Advantage
Spalletti’s current form, coupled with their home advantage at the San Siro, makes them favorites for this clash. France’s inconsistency and lack of cutting edge without Mbappe further tilt the scales in the Azzurri’s favor. Expect a tightly contested game, but Italy’s cohesion and tactical discipline should see them through.
jambobet Prediction: Italy 2-0 France
