The Premier League’s matchday 6 was filled with thrilling action, unexpected outcomes, and some results that left fans buzzing.
But beyond the scores, what do the underlying metrics reveal about the weekend’s performances? Were some teams incredibly fortunate, while others just missed out?
Lucky Winners: Everton
Everton may have finally gotten their first win of the season, but it wasn’t without a stroke of luck. The Toffees secured a 2-1 victory over Crystal Palace, but the stats suggest that this win was far from straightforward.
Crystal Palace started strong with Marc Guehi scoring from a set-piece early on, putting Everton on the back foot.
However, Dwight McNeil’s brilliance turned the game around. His first goal, a long-range strike with an xG value of just 0.02, was a moment of magic that helped Everton draw level.
McNeil followed up with a second goal shortly after, but these were two of only eight shots Everton managed during the game.
On the other hand, Crystal Palace fired 17 shots, accumulating an xG of 0.95. The quality of the chances created by both teams suggests that a 1-1 draw would have been the most likely outcome.
But Everton’s clinical finishing, combined with a little luck, saw them claim all three points. This makes Everton one of the luckiest winners of the weekend.
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Lucky Draw: Brentford
Brentford’s 1-1 draw with West Ham was another game where the stats told a different story than the result.
The Bees took the lead in the first minute through a spectacular effort from Bryan Mbeumo, but the rest of the match saw them struggle to create chances. Brentford only managed 0.37 xG across the entire game, which highlights their lack of offensive production.
West Ham, by comparison, created 18 shots and finished with an xG of 0.99. Tomas Soucek’s equalizer reflected the quality of chances the Hammers created throughout the match, and they’ll likely feel hard done by not securing all three points.
Statistically, West Ham was the better team, but Brentford’s early goal and defensive resilience saw them hold on for a draw.
Brentford can count themselves lucky to have walked away with a point, especially considering West Ham had numerous opportunities to seal the game. This match highlights how sometimes, in football, a single moment of brilliance can outweigh sustained pressure from the opposition.
Unlucky Loser: Nicolas Jackson
Chelsea’s 4-2 win over Brighton might look like a comfortable victory on paper, but for Nicolas Jackson, it was a day of frustration. While his team put four goals past Brighton, Jackson himself was left wondering how he didn’t get on the scoresheet.
Jackson was heavily involved in Chelsea’s attack and created several great chances. He accumulated an impressive 1.37 xG, which was the third-highest total for any player across the Premier League during the weekend. He took five shots, with two of those on target, but failed to convert any of his chances.
Jackson’s most agonizing moment came when one of his shots was cleared off the line. On another day, with the same level of performance, he could have easily bagged a goal or two.
His inability to capitalize on these chances puts him among the unlucky players of the weekend. For Chelsea fans, the win will be celebrated, but for Jackson, it will be a reminder of missed opportunities.
Underlying Metrics: Why They Matter
The Premier League is known for its thrilling matches and unpredictable results. However, looking deeper into the underlying metrics, like expected goals (xG), can provide a clearer picture of how the game was actually played. These stats show the quality of the chances created and can often reveal when a team has been fortunate or unlucky.
For instance, Everton’s win over Crystal Palace, despite having a lower xG, suggests that their victory relied on moments of brilliance rather than consistent attacking play. Similarly, Brentford’s draw with West Ham shows how an early goal can mask a lack of creativity over the course of a match.
Metrics like xG are becoming increasingly important in analyzing football, helping to explain why certain teams win, draw, or lose. And for those looking to make informed bets, understanding these metrics can give you an edge.
