With just three games remaining in the 2024/25 Premier League season, the battle for Champions League qualification has reached fever pitch. While Manchester City and Arsenal seem relatively secure in the top two, the final two places remain wide open, with Nottingham Forest, Chelsea, Newcastle United, and Aston Villa all locked in an unpredictable sprint to the finish. Beyond the prestige, Champions League qualification comes with massive financial rewards — up to £100 million — and crucial leverage in the transfer market.
Forest Fueling a Fairytale Campaign
Nottingham Forest have been one of the season’s biggest revelations under Nuno Espirito Santo. Sitting sixth with 60 points, they are just three points behind both Chelsea and Newcastle (63 points) and have a game in hand. A win against Crystal Palace could bring them level with the top-four contenders.
Nottingham Forest drop points after a 1-1 draw to Crystal Palace.
Three games to go and the race for Champions League spots is tight ⏳ pic.twitter.com/OibaUkLJGz
— B/R Football (@brfootball) May 5, 2025
The odds are in Forest’s favor. Palace haven’t won any of their last four Premier League matches and have struggled historically against Forest, failing to beat them in their last eight top-flight meetings. Forest have also shown resilience away from home, winning two of their last three games in London.
With matches against relegated Leicester City, a faltering West Ham, and Chelsea on the final day, Forest’s Champions League dream is very much alive.
Chelsea and Newcastle Brace for Six-Pointer
Chelsea’s recent revival — including a resounding win over Liverpool — has reignited hopes of a top-four finish. However, the Blues face a crunch tie against Newcastle that could prove pivotal. Both clubs are level on points, and this direct duel at Stamford Bridge is being touted as a potential decider.
Enzo Maresca’s future at Chelsea could depend on European qualification. Following the Newcastle clash, the Blues must take on Manchester United and then face Forest in what could be a season-defining finale. A failure to qualify may trigger another managerial shuffle at Stamford Bridge.
Newcastle’s run-in is far from easy. After the Chelsea fixture, they travel to face Arsenal at the Emirates — a place where few sides find joy — before finishing at home against Everton. If Alexander Isak and Bruno Guimarães are to lead Newcastle to successive Champions League campaigns, they’ll need to step up in these final hurdles.
The form and fixtures for the teams chasing the Champions League places
Who do you think misses out on a top five place? pic.twitter.com/FQctiQyB7r
— Premier League (@premierleague) May 5, 2025
Arsenal: Safe or Slipping?
Arsenal’s form is starting to raise eyebrows. Despite reaching the Champions League semi-finals and sitting second in the table, their domestic performances have been erratic, with just two wins from their last seven Premier League games.
With a midweek UCL second-leg against PSG looming, fatigue and fixture congestion could become factors. Mikel Arteta’s men still have Liverpool and Newcastle to face, and any dropped points could make their final game against Southampton unexpectedly nervy.
While the Gunners are unlikely to be overtaken, football is full of surprises, and a poor run-in could leave the door slightly ajar for a chasing pack.
Aston Villa: The Silent Threat
Unai Emery’s Aston Villa aren’t making as many headlines, but their challenge should not be underestimated. Just behind the top four, Villa’s final three games — against Bournemouth, Tottenham, and Manchester United — are tricky but winnable.
Villa have quietly built a team that can compete with the best, and players like Ollie Watkins, Douglas Luiz, and Leon Bailey have all delivered standout performances this season. If Chelsea and Newcastle slip, Villa could sneak into the top four in dramatic fashion.
The Riches of European Nights
It’s not just about glory. The financial incentives of Champions League football are enormous. Each group stage win nets £1.8 million, while a draw is worth £600,000. Every spot in the 36-team table brings an additional £800,000. Arsenal, for example, have already earned close to £97 million from this season’s campaign — funds that could be vital in reinforcing the squad.
Qualifying also opens doors for player recruitment. Clubs outside the Champions League often find it harder to attract elite talent or hold on to their stars. Newcastle, for instance, may struggle to keep Isak or Bruno Guimarães without the lure of Europe’s top competition.
Goal Difference Could Decide Fate
In what is shaping up to be a season defined by tight margins, goal difference may prove decisive. If teams finish level on points, a superior goal tally could be the only difference between European glory and disappointment.
The Premier League’s final matchdays will be filled with drama, tension, and twists. Forest’s resurgence, Chelsea’s late charge, Newcastle’s tough run, and Villa’s quiet chase have made this one of the most compelling top-four races in years.
Every game from now on will feel like a final — because for these clubs, it might as well be.
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